The Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln (IW) projects annual employment growth of only 1.2 percent for 2023 to 2028 — significantly lower than in previous years. Despite short-term relief, the skilled labor gap will continue to grow structurally. Sales roles are among the most severely affected segments. The consequence for B2B companies in the German mid-market is clear: those who organize growth exclusively through headcount will lose. The only reliable lever is productivity per head.
1. The Finding: Labor Market Losing Momentum
The German labor market is growing — but more slowly. The IW Köln has revised its growth projection for social insurance-covered employment from 1.6 percent (prior year projection) down to 1.2 percent annually. For the period 2023 to 2028, this corresponds to an average of 397,000 new employees per year.
| Metric | Value | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Annual employment growth 2023–2028 | 1.2% | IW-Report 34/2025 |
| Prior year growth projection | 1.6% | IW-Report 33/2024 |
| Actual growth Jan 2024–Jan 2025 | 0.1% | BA, 2025 |
| Skilled labor gap annual average 2024 | 487,000 | Tiedemann/Risius 2025 |
| Skilled labor gap 2028 (projection) | up to 830,000 | IW-Report 34/2025 |
Particularly revealing: actual employment growth from January 2024 to January 2025 was only 0.1 percent — significantly weaker than all model projections. The ifo business cycle indicator has been in crisis mode since September 2022. The IW researchers are explicit: the present findings are, given the geopolitical and economic situation, too optimistic.
2. What This Means for Sales Organizations
The IW projection differentiates across 1,300 occupational categories. For sales and sales-adjacent functions, three findings are immediately relevant.
Procurement, sales, and trade occupations are projected to grow by 118,544 employees to 1,186,686 by 2028 — a gain of 11.1 percent. At the same time, sales occupations (skilled worker level) rank among the top shortage occupations: the skilled labor gap in this segment is projected to reach 40,470 unfillable open positions by 2028.
The paradox is clear: demand for sales professionals is growing, but supply is not keeping pace.
"Of 558 shortage occupations in 2023, the number will increase to 591 by 2028. The skilled labor shortage is spreading to additional occupational categories." — IW-Report 34/2025, Burstedde / Tiedemann
IT occupations show the strongest relative employment growth: +26.3 percent by 2028. This is relevant for sales organizations too — because modern B2B sales systems require CRM competency, data literacy, and digital tool proficiency.
Industrial occupations, by contrast, are declining: the projection assumes a decrease of 2.8 percent by 2028. This directly affects the customer base of many mid-market companies.
3. Demographic Pressure Is Intensifying
The IW data shows: the most important driver of employment growth is rising participation rates — particularly among older workers (55+). At the same time, the demographic shift is increasingly acting as a brake through the retirement of baby boomers.
| Effect | Contribution 2023–2028 |
|---|---|
| Participation effect (rising labor market participation) | +550,500 per year |
| Immigration effect | +251,000 |
| Cohort shift (demographics) | −288,000 |
In eastern Germany, the retirement wave is already running at full speed. The skilled labor gap among trained specialists will exceed its previous all-time high by 2028 by 36 percent.
4. The Consequence for Sales Organizations
The IW data confirms what metodic observes structurally: the approach "we hire more people and the revenue problem solves itself" no longer works — and will work even less often in the coming years.
First: productivity per head is the only scalable answer. When qualified sales professionals are scarce and increasingly expensive, every person available must be able to accomplish more. That does not happen through pressure — it happens through better systems: clearer roles, shorter ramp time, fewer friction losses between functions.
Second: turnover is more expensive than ever. Those who lose a good AE need on average six to twelve months to bring a replacement to the same productivity level — assuming a replacement can even be found.
Third: demographic change hits the mid-market earlier than expected. In regions with weaker purchasing power and in industry-adjacent sectors, the situation is intensifying faster.
"The skilled labor shortage persists and will tend to rise again. This does not change the fundamental conclusions about which key adjustments are most relevant." — IW-Report 34/2025, Burstedde / Tiedemann
5. The Consequence for System Building
Those who invest in sales systems today build a competitive advantage that becomes more valuable with every year of talent shortage:
- Role architecture determines how quickly new employees become productive — and how long experience remains in the company when someone leaves.
- Documented processes are not bureaucratic overhead, but insurance against demographically driven knowledge loss.
- System-based sales — SDR, AE, presales, CS with clear interfaces — reduces dependency on individuals and makes ramp-up manageable.
Source note: All labor market data is from: Burstedde, Alexander / Tiedemann, Jurek, IW-Arbeitsmarktfortschreibung 2028 — Aktualisierung mit Daten bis 2023, IW-Report 34/2025, Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft Köln, July 2025. Supplementary data: BA Monthly Report March 2025; Tiedemann / Risius 2025 (KOFA). metodic GmbH is not affiliated with IW Köln.